This paper examines empirical and theoretical ways to test the Principle of Manifestation, which posits that fundamental types of matter (inanimate, living, civilizational) are ontologically pre-given and merely "manifest" through evolution. The author distinguishes three types of tests: post hoc confirmations, ante hoc predictions, and long-term prospects. Post hoc confirmations include historical evidence (the independent emergence of mathematics, logic, and social institutions across different civilizations) and convergent evolution (eyes, echolocation, and sociality evolving independently dozens of times). Michael Levin's experiments on form restoration are also compatible with the principle, though not definitive proof. Ante hoc predictions involve cosmology: the principle predicts correlations between fundamental constants, spacetime variations of constants (δx/x ∼ 10⁻⁶–10⁻⁵), and a dynamical cosmological constant Λ(t). Upcoming missions (JWST, ELT, DESI/Euclid) can potentially falsify these predictions by 2035. Long-term prospects include SETI: extraterrestrial civilizations, if found, should have independently discovered the same mathematical and logical structures. The paper emphasizes that the principle is not directly falsifiable; rather, specific models derived from it (the IDM for physics, CAP formalism for biology) are tested. The author frames this as a research program in Lakatos's sense, comparing it with alternative explanations (emergence, evolutionary attractors, developmental bias). While none of the tests provide final proof, their totality transforms the principle from speculative metaphysics into a working scientific program that already explains more than its competitors.
Alexander Yourievitch Kotelnikov (Thu,) studied this question.