Sea-level rise poses a severe challenge to biodiversity conservation in coastal regions. Taking the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (the GBA) as a case study, this research simulated a 0.5 m sea-level rise scenario by 2050. Utilizing a GIS platform, we integrated the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model, and the Zonation systematic conservation planning tool to analyze the changes of ecological conservation patterns from 2020 to 2050. The projected results were further compared with existing nature reserve and territorial spatial plans to identify conservation gaps. This research obtained the following results. 1) The responses of highly suitable habitats to a 0.5 m sea-level rise diverge significantly across four taxonomic groups. Specifically, the highly suitable habitats for mammals and reptiles are projected to decrease by 11.59% and 44.30%, respectively, whereas those for amphibians and birds are expected to expand by 34.61% and 21.61% driven by wetland expansion. 2) Ecological conservation priority areas (ECPAs) for terrestrial wildlife are predominantly concentrated within three distinct ecological settings: mountainous forests, coastal and shoreline ecosystems, and peri-urban nature reserves. 3) Although the predicted 2050 ECPAs largely overlap with current nature reserves (2025), critical protection gaps remain in the southern mountainous and coastal regions of Jiangmen, the central-western areas of Shenzhen, the southern coastal and eastern mountainous regions of Huizhou, national forest parks in the central-northern Guangdong, and the mountainous areas in northern Zhaoqing. This study provides a scientific basis for the adaptive planning of coastal cities in response to sea level rise.
ZHU et al. (Thu,) studied this question.