What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to validate the tilt-and-radiate mechanism for predicting binary black hole remnant spins.

June 8, 2026Open Access

Paper CCLXIV: Population-Scale Validation of the CCLVI Tilt-and-Radiate eta-Only Sector — N = 146 GWTC-4. 1 + GWTC-5. 0 Events Confirm rhoPearson (Delta, chiₑff) = +0. 97 with 1% Non-Spinning-Sector Accuracy

Key Points

The aim is to validate the tilt-and-radiate mechanism for predicting binary black hole remnant spins.
Validated using GWTC-4.1 and GWTC-5.0 parameter estimations for N = 146 events.
Computed the Pearson and Spearman correlations between measured remnant spin and effective inspiral spin.
Established four falsification criteria to validate the framework.
Pearson correlation rho(Delta, chi_eff) = +0.9702 with a t-statistic of ~48 (p << 10^-50).
Median |Delta| for low chi_eff events was 0.0104, within NR-fit uncertainty.
CCLVI matches existing NR polynomial fits within 0.5%-1.9% accuracy across the eta range.

Abstract

Paper CCLVI predicted that binary black-hole remnant spin is acquired through a tilt-and-radiate mechanism that produces the eta-only formula aᵣem, CCLVI (eta) = 2 sqrt (3) eta (1 - 8 eta/pi²), where the radiation efficiency 8 eta/pi² = 2 (1-fIII) eta is fixed by Class III bulk self-coupling saturation fIII = 1 - 4/pi² (CCLII, CCXLIV). The framework predicts this eta-only sector factorises cleanly from the initial component-spin sector. Using the GWTC-4. 1 O4a parameter-estimation release (Zenodo 10. 5281/zenodo. 17014085) and the GWTC-5. 0 O4b release (Zenodo 10. 5281/zenodo. 20348005, v9), we extract LVK headline median estimates of measured remnant spin aᵣem, meas and effective inspiral spin chiₑff for N = 146 events (85 O4a + 61 O4b) and compute the residual Delta = aᵣem, meas - aᵣem, CCLVI (etaₘedian). We report Pearson rho (Delta, chiₑff) = +0. 9702 95% bootstrap CI +0. 9457, +0. 9843, Spearman rho = +0. 9639 +0. 9239, +0. 9833, OLS slope +0. 3716 +0. 3496, +0. 3892, and OLS intercept +0. 0101. The t-statistic for the Pearson correlation is ~48 on 144 dof (formally p << 10^-50). For the 63 events with |chiₑff| < 0. 05, median (|Delta|) = 0. 0104 and std (Delta) = 0. 0153, below the typical NR-fit uncertainty floor. The slope sits within the standard NR-fitted aligned-spin contribution range (0. 3-0. 5), and the intercept is consistent with zero. CCLVI matches the canonical Rezzolla 2008 NR non-spinning polynomial fit to within 0. 5%-1. 9% across the population eta range. Two low-|chiₑff| outliers (GW230712₀90405 and GW230529₁81500) fall outside the |Delta| <= 0. 02 NR-fit floor and point to expected refinement directions (eccentric correction and NSBH matter effects, respectively) ; the GW230712 outlier size depends on the eta-posterior choice (LVK precessing headline eta ~ 0. 20 vs Pompili EAS eta ~ 0. 227), an honest systematic the paper documents. Four explicit population-scale falsification criteria (F1-F4) are stated and all pass by wide margins. Pre-registration of CCXLV-FP1 (chiₚ. M² residual correlation handle) on the top-10 high-|Delta| sub-population is documented for the next data release. This is the first population-scale OOB framework confirmation, executed with zero free parameters against publicly released LVK headline data. Framework count: 265 numbered papers. Part of the One-Octonion Brane-Bulk Framework series. Anchor DOI: 10. 5281/zenodo. 19120873. Community: one-octonion-brane-bulk. Author: Bharathi Dasan Jagadeesan, M. D. , University of Minnesota. ORCID: 0000-0002-1143-941X.

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