This study proposes an interdisciplinary, data-driven approach to understanding historical and future trends in plant biodiversity in Italian rewilded mountain areas. We produced spatially explicit assessments of vegetation change between 1990 and 2020 in three mountain protected areas spanning the Italian Peninsula: 1) Eastern Alps (Lagorai mountain range); 2) Northern Apennines (Foreste Casentinesi Monte Falterona e Campigna NP), and 3) Central Apennines (Velino Massif). The methodology included generalized dissimilarity modeling (GDMs) to model the dissimilarity of plant assemblages as a function of their geographical distances, ecological dissimilarities, and differences in land cover derived by remote sensing. After calibrating the GDMs with historical and newly collected vegetation plot data, the maps of predicted species composition at different times were created, and their comparison allowed highlighting areas where change in land cover induced the largest changes in species composition and quantifying the consequences for regional plant diversity.
Polina Lemenkova (Mon,) studied this question.