Narrowing Dreams: Herding Effect in Youth Career Aspirations under Income Inequality

Income inequality has widened globally, yet little is known about how societal-level economic disparities influence adolescents' career aspirations. This study investigated whether higher income inequality leads to greater "dream job herding"—where adolescents disproportionately converge on a narrow set of highly coveted careers rather than pursuing diverse occupational paths. Using cross-national data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) across six waves (2000, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2022), we analyzed the career aspirations of adolescents from 102 countries and regions. Income inequality was measured using income share of the top 1%, Gini coefficient, and alternative specifications. Dream job herding was quantified through two indices: standard deviation of career aspiration frequencies within countries, and percentage of adolescents aspiring to the top 10 most common occupations. Analyses controlled for GDP per capita, population density, and individualism. Results revealed significant positive correlations between income inequality and career aspiration herding. The income share of the top 1% correlated positively with both herding indices, as did the Gini coefficient. Multiple regression and multilevel analyses confirmed these relationships remained robust when controlling for confounding variables. These findings suggest that higher income inequality is associated with more homogenized career aspirations among adolescents, indicating that unequal socioeconomic contexts narrow perceived pathways to success. This herding effect likely reflects adaptive responses to competitive environments characterized by status anxiety and heightened social comparison processes. The results have important implications for educators, counselors, and policymakers, highlighting the need to actively promote diverse career exploration, particularly in high-inequality contexts where youth may feel pressured to pursue conventional success markers.