Investigating Unresolved Serial Rape Cases in South Africa: a Case Study: The Ekurhuleni Serial Rape Case

Abstract This article examines the investigation of an unresolved serial rape series in the Ekurhuleni District of South Africa and analyses how forensic intelligence, behavioural linkage, and multidisciplinary investigative review interact in the identification of prolific stranger rapists. The article has two related aims. First, it documents the investigative development of the Ekurhuleni series, including the generation of DNA crime-to-crime forensic investigative leads through the National Forensic DNA Database of South Africa (NFDD-ZA), the expansion of the series through behavioural linkage, the consequences of a misdirected arrest, and the renewed investigation that ultimately resulted in the offender’s arrest and conviction. Second, it analyses key investigative decision points to identify factors that facilitated or hindered progress. Third, it derives practice-relevant lessons for unresolved serial rape investigations. The case concerned a prolific offender linked to 97 rape-related incidents assessed during the investigation, of which 49 were linked through DNA evidence. The final prosecution resulted in convictions on 90 counts of rape and multiple additional offences. These figures represent different stages of evidential and legal classification, with convictions reflecting a subset of the broader series identified through forensic and behavioural analysis. The case demonstrates the evidential and operational value of forensic DNA intelligence, structured cold-case review, victim re-engagement, and multidisciplinary collaboration, while also illustrating the risks associated with premature investigative closure, cognitive bias, and fragmented case management. The findings contribute to the investigative psychology and policing literature by providing a detailed, practice-oriented analysis of a high-volume serial rape investigation within a resource-constrained and high-crime context.