Multi-criteria AHP-GIS approach for groundwater potential zonation in the semi-arid Bouanane basin

Abstract Sustainable groundwater management remains a critical challenge in semi-arid regions, where climatic variability and increasing anthropogenic pressures constrain aquifer resilience. In this context, the present study applies an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based GIS framework to delineate groundwater potential zones in the Bouanane Basin, a data-scarce semi-arid environment. The analysis integrates nine hydro-environmental factors, including precipitation, land use, lineament density, drainage density, geology, soil type, slope, elevation, and NDVI, to capture both structural and surface controls on groundwater occurrence. The AHP weighting scheme achieved an acceptable level of consistency (CR = 0.070), ensuring the reliability of the pairwise comparison process. he results identify three groundwater potential classes: very low (1.24%), low (84.88%), and moderate (13.87%). Model performance was evaluated using data from 27 wells and validated through the kappa coefficient (κ = 0.82), indicating strong agreement between predicted and observed conditions. The findings highlight the dominant influence of geological structure, lineament density, and precipitation in controlling groundwater distribution. The predominance of low to moderate potential zones reflects the hydro-climatic and geological constraints typical of semi-arid environments. This study provides a spatially explicit assessment of groundwater potential and contributing factors, offering a practical basis for groundwater management in data-limited semi-arid basins.