Determinants of exports in Côte D Ivoire.

Purpose- Given the critical role of exports in fostering economic growth, this study aims to investigate the determinants of exports in Côte d’Ivoire over the period 1970-2024. Specifically, the study examines the effects of trade openness, agricultural output, final consumption expenditure, and the exchange rate on export performance in Côte d’Ivoire. By analyzing influences of these macroeconomic factors, the study seeks to provide deeper insights into the key drivers of export growth in the Ivorian economy. Methodology- Annual time series data over the period 1970-2024 were employed in this study. The data are obtained from the World Bank. The VAR model has been utilized in this study to test for cointegration among the variables and to examine the key determinants of exports in Côte d’Ivoire. The ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, and CUSUM test were applied to analyze the data. The ADF unit root test is applied to ensure the stationarity of time series data and prevent spurious regression. The Johansen cointegration test examines the presence of long-run equilibrium relationships among non-stationary variables, while the Granger causality test identifies the direction of causal and predictive relationships over time. The CUSUM test is used to evaluate the stability of model coefficients throughout the study period. Findings- The Johansen cointegration test revealed that exports are positively related to trade openness and agriculture output, but it is related negatively with final consumption expenditure, and exchange rate. Agriculture output has the biggest effect on exports. The Granger causality test results showed that there are unidirectional short-run causality relationship running from exports to trade openness, and bidirectional short-run causality relationship between agriculture output and exports, but there is no evidence of any short-run causality relationship between final consumption expenditure, exchange rate and exports. Besides, there are bidirectional long-run causality relationships between trade openness, agriculture output, exchange rate and exports, and unidirectional long-run causality relationship running from final consumption expenditure to exports. Lastly, CUSUM test indicated that there are no structural changes in the model. Conclusion- The study concluded that a coordinated policy approach that promotes trade openness, enhances agricultural production, manages domestic consumption, and ensures exchange rate stability is essential for strengthening Côte d’Ivoire’s export sector and achieving sustainable economic growth. Keywords: Côte d’Ivoire, Ivory Coast, international trade, trade liberalization, agricultural sector