The state of youth in South Africa: a demographic perspective

An important change in the profile of the South African youth population in the past few decades is their increasing share of the national population. There are currently an estimated number of 10.1 million people aged 15 to 24 years in South Africa. This is a large increase from their estimated size of 3.1 million in 1960. Their share of the national population increased from 17.9% in 1960 to 20.5% by the end of 2009. Insights from technical demographic projections suggest that this relative expansion of the youth population is likely to continue into the next decade, with a significant reversal of trend expected from about the decade of the 2020s. The demographic correlates of this relative increase in the size of the South African youth population are fairly well known. This predicable and demographically transient phenomenon is in large part a result of combined effects of declining levels of fertility and mortality. The cohorts of youth who contribute to this sizeable increase were born when fertility was relatively high and benefitted from overall improvements in infant, child and adolescent survivorship. The size and trend in the youth population have implications for socioeconomic development for which we are yet to develop adequate framework of understanding. The issues are more complex than the simplistic neo-Malthusian approach that blames the rate of population growth for most national social and economic problems. Scholars bring different perspectives to the debate depending on whether they observe youth transition in a changing society or whether they are interested in the macro-economics of youth demography. From a policy standpoint, there is little substantive case for the so-called emerging debate about whether this demographic experience is good or bad for the national economy. A relatively large number of people in the active working ages can be a demographic asset. If they have access to good productive forces, they will most probably generate sufficient resources to take care of other segments of the population. But the potential economic benefit of the young population could be realized only if they are healthy, well-educated, have good economic environment and live in a stable and predictable political environment.