The energy rebound effect of urban households in China: Based on an improved stochastic frontier model

Improving household energy efficiency is the primary policy option for mitigating the rapid growth of energy consumption in the residential sector; however, the existence of the energy rebound effect poses a significant challenge to energy-saving policies aimed at improving energy efficiency. This study calculated the energy rebound effect for urban households in China using an improved stochastic frontier model with provincial panel data from 2005 to 2022. We then analysed the spatiotemporal dynamics of energy rebound and energy efficiency using kernel density analysis. Results show that the arithmetic mean energy efficiency of urban households in China increased from 0.608 in 2005 to 0.785 in 2022, while their energy consumption has shown a stable upward trend. Per capita disposable income and fuel prices have significant positive and negative effects, respectively, on the energy rebound effect of urban households. At the same time, the arithmetic mean of the energy rebound effect increased from 0.290 in 2005 to 0.932 in 2022, and provinces with higher energy efficiency always have a higher energy rebound effect. Based on the results, several measures are proposed to mitigate the energy rebound effect of urban households. First, efforts should be made to improve energy efficiency by boosting per capita disposable income or updating living infrastructure. Second, fuel price policies should be refined by linking fuel prices to the consumer price index for regular adjustments. Third, households should be actively guided towards low-carbon consumption behaviours by enhancing urban households’ recognition of low-carbon living and by creating an external environment that facilitates their adoption.