Toward Collapse Geometry: CCV(t) as a Tier-0 Geometric Framework for Coherence Capacity Deformation and Precursor Dynamics

This manuscript introduces Collapse Geometry, a Tier-0 framework within the SCFL/UCMS canon modeling systemic and civilizational failure as measurable geometric deformation of coherence capacity over time. The central operator, CCV(t) — Coherence Capacity Volume at time t — integrates drift geometry, precursor window compression, τ₁/₂ half-life decay, entropic acceleration, seam-level systemic risk cascades, and cross-domain restoration pathways across physical, institutional, civilizational, and interior substrates. The framework traces its scientific lineage through collapsing Riemannian manifolds, gravitational collapse, progressive structural failure, and relational ontologies, and positions itself relative to adjacent recent work in AI structural coherence (Dynamic Coherence Windows) and institutional translation coherence (the Field Protocol), as well as the established early warning signals literature on critical slowing down (Scheffer, Dakos, Boers). Empirical grounding is anchored to ACTIVSg2000, a real 2,000-bus synthetic Texas grid testbed. A corrected N=120 scenario sweep (reactive power limits properly enforced, following identification and resolution of a physical-validity error in an earlier run) provides real lead-time statistics for drift, precursor, and τ₁/₂ detection under N-1/N-2 contingency stress. A separate replicated experiment identifies a sharp, non-monotonic AC power-flow solvability transition near 103% of base-case load. Formal detection-logic operators (drift, precursor-window compression, τ₁/₂ location, fork classification) are fully specified in closed form, along with a reproducible computation pipeline and explicit falsifiability criteria for the framework’s core claims. This is a v0.9 release: a founding theoretical specification and measurement architecture, not a fully validated model. The manuscript states its own scope plainly (Section 1.1) and documents outstanding gaps explicitly (Section 12), including an unresolved circularity in fitting the core operator’s calibration weights against real telemetry, and pending validation of two figures against the same review standard applied to the rest. CCV Candidate Operators Research Note-supplemental