This paper proposes a comprehensive conceptual framework for analyzing the long-term structural evolution of technological civilizations. Taking the layer‑specific Minimal Thought Unit (MTU) as the analytical starting point and the vulnerability index a as the core variable, the framework systematically demonstrates the structural evolutionary laws of civilizations from micro‑cognition to macro‑cosmos. It introduces Demand Cycle Decoupling (DCD) as a real‑time observable criterion for the Strong Social Brain (SSB) process, defines the Layer Knowledge Threshold as the boundary point at which Technological Locking ceases to be effective, and explains the structural roots of the Fermi Paradox through the principle of Cognitive Metabolic Incompatibility (CMI). The model derives four structural terminal pathways for civilizations—Extension, Active Residual Survival, Self‑Destruction, and Ascension—and demonstrates that layer transition is essentially a version‑update mechanism within the cosmic cognitive ecosystem. The framework’s core thesis is: ascension is structurally equivalent to extinction for cognitive subjects at the current layer, yet at the informational‑flow level it resolves the problem of the current layer’s carrying capacity ceiling, making it a structural necessity of civilizational evolution.
纪江涛 纪 (Tue,) studied this question.