Abstract This study investigated the reliability of punching shear capacity prediction models for ultrahigh-performance concrete (UHPC) bridge slabs in the Chinese, French, Japanese, and American codes. The research was based on a database consisting of 161 UHPC slabs. Initially, correlation analysis was conducted on the model errors of punching shear capacity formulae. Then, the suggested calculation model (SCM) was established based on model error analysis and analysis of variance. Moreover, the reliability of the prediction models was analyzed through the Monte Carlo simulation and first-order second-moment method, considering the parameters such as the material strength, live-to-dead load ratio ( α ), effective slab height ( h 0 ), rebar ratio ( ρ s ), and boundary condition. The results indicated that the SCM could accurately predict punching shear capacity with the least discretization, with a mean error of 1.05 and a coefficient of variation of 0.14. The reliability index ( β ) of the SCM, with a value of 5.20, was higher than the specified value of 4.7. The sensitivity analysis showed that the β increased with increasing α , ρ s , and h 0 ; however, it was not significantly influenced by UHPC material strength. In addition, the β of the fixed-supported UHPC slab was lower than that of the simply supported UHPC slab. The material partial factor for the punching shear capacity formula in the SCM was calibrated, and 1.35 was recommended for the UHPC bridge slab.
Qiu et al. (Fri,) studied this question.