Nationality patterns of the fastest marathon runners across age groups in the Berlin marathon

Abstract While the dominance of elite East African marathoners is well-established, little is known about the nationality distribution of the fastest age group marathoners. This study examined how the nationality distribution of the fastest marathon runners varies across age groups and sexes in the ‘Berlin Marathon’. We analysed race data from 825,886 finishers (627,962 men and 197,807 women) of the ‘Berlin Marathon’ from 1999 to 2024. Finishers were grouped by five-year age brackets, sex and nationality. We examined performance across five analytical layers: (1) all runners, (2) top 100, (3) top 30, (4) top 10 and (5) the single fastest runner per country and age group. Linear regression models were applied to both the entire dataset and the subset of the top 100 finishers per age group to assess the predictive value of age and nationality on finish time. Most finishers were from Germany, with the USA becoming the second-most represented country after 2017. In younger age groups (20–39 years), the fastest average times for both sexes were achieved by runners from Kenya and Ethiopia. In middle-aged (40–49 years) and older groups (50 + years), top performances shifted toward runners from Germany, the United States, Japan, and Switzerland. In regression models, age group and nationality explained only 4.1% of the variance in male finish times and 2.9% in females across the full dataset. However, for the top 100 runners, explanatory power rose significantly to 52.8% for men and 48.6% for women. The nationality distribution of the fastest age group marathoners shifts with age in the ‘Berlin Marathon’: East African nations dominate at younger ages, while Western Europe and East Asian countries lead among older runners. These results emphasize the global expansion of competitive master running and the role of cultural and demographic factors in shaping endurance performance across the lifespan.