Electoral rewards for credit claims: the Inflation Reduction Act and the 2024 U.S. Congressional election

Did U.S. voters reward incumbents in the House of Representatives for the investments from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)? Using an instrumental variable (IV) approach, we examine changes in incumbents’ vote share in 349 contested districts between the 2022 and 2024 U.S. congressional elections. Voters could reward members for publicly claiming credit for IRA investment in their district, or for the economic growth the district might have experienced. We find that, after controlling for economic growth, incumbents in districts with higher IRA investments experienced a vote share gain, irrespective of party affiliation. Specifically, a 1% increase in the log IRA investment led to a 1.29% increase in the incumbents’ vote share. Results are more consistent with incumbents’ credit claiming around IRA investments rather than short-term economic growth that might have resulted from this funding. Also, not a single Republican supported the IRA, although in their 2024 campaigns, many took credit for IRA investments. Thus, voters rewarded incumbents not for their House vote on the IRA bill, but for the investments that emerged from the IRA. Our results suggest that voters may credit House members with the federal pork the district receives, rather than with the legislation they voted on.