Effect of the Suspension From the African Growth and Opportunity Act Programme on Poverty in Sub‐Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT The African Growth and Opportunity Act programme (AGOA) is a non‐reciprocal trade preference offered by the United States to Sub‐Saharan African countries. It was set to expire on 30 September 2025, but was re‐authorized on February 03, 2026, by President Trump through December 31, 2026, with retroactive effect to September 30, 2025. The present article examines the effect of the AGOA suspension on poverty in suspended countries. The analysis covers an unbalanced sample of 43 SSA countries, of which 15 SSA countries suspended at least once from the benefits of the AGOA (the treatment group), and 28 SSA countries that are eligible for the benefits of the programme but were never suspended from those benefits (control group). Empirical findings indicate that the AGOA suspension has raised poverty in suspended countries, with countries that export non‐resource products being the most adversely affected. The analysis has additionally revealed that the poverty situation of suspended countries has worsened relatively to countries that never benefited from the programme. This finding shows that the poverty situation of suspended countries has deteriorated after the AGOA suspension relatively to what their situation would have been if they did not benefit from the programme. Finally, the analysis shows that for SSA countries eligible for the AGOA (both beneficiary countries that were never suspended from the benefits of the programme, and those that were suspended at least once from the programme), the AGOA programme leads to the decline in poverty rates in both resource‐rich and non‐resource rich SSA beneficiary countries, but to a greater extent in the former than in the latter. The analysis sheds light on the poverty rise consequences of the AGOA suspension, and points to the adverse consequences of the uncertainty surrounding non‐reciprocal trade preferences for beneficiary countries.