What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to redefine development priorities for African economies by emphasizing useful power rather than GDP growth.

July 29, 2026Open Access

Priorities and indicators of sustainable development in low- and middle-income countries: the case of Africa

ITInese TrušiņaRiga Technical University VAViktor AbramovCentre National de la Recherche Scientifique DMDmitry MikhaylovKyrgyz State Technical University

Key Points

The aim is to redefine development priorities for African economies by emphasizing useful power rather than GDP growth.
Utilized a natural-scientific approach to analyze socio-economic systems power-change
Conceptualized national economies as open thermodynamic systems
Developed and applied metrics including useful power per capita and Useful Power Carbon Intensity (UPCI).
In South Africa, useful power stagnated since 2008 despite GDP resilience, indicating deindustrialization.
Nigeria and Ethiopia show service-sector growth without an industrial foundation, reducing systemic efficiency.
Egypt exhibits simultaneous growth in both GDP and useful power.

Abstract

Traditional economic development narratives in African countries, primarily centred on GDP growth, frequently overlook deep-seated structural constraints and biophysical limits. Monetary indicators fail to differentiate between qualitative technological advancement and extensive, resource-dependent expansion. This study redefines strategic development priorities for major low- and middle-income African economies by shifting the analytical lens from monetary output to the dynamics of useful power. Grounded in a natural-scientific approach, this research utilises an original socio-economic systems power-change analysis, transitioning from volatile monetary metrics to physically invariant indicators measured in Watts. Conceptualising national economies as open thermodynamic systems, we analyse the developmental trajectories of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 1990 to 2022. The analytical framework employs a ‘dual-loop’ approach, integrating useful power per capita, structural complexity STINA, Quality of Life in Energy units QoLE, and the newly developed Useful Power Carbon Intensity UPCI. Empirical analysis reveals a profound ‘monetary-structural divergence’. While GDP showed resilience, useful power in South Africa has stagnated since 2008, signalling premature deindustrialisation. Nigeria and Ethiopia exhibit ‘superficial tertiarisation’, where service-sector growth lacks an industrial core, thereby diminishing systemic efficiency. Conversely, Egypt demonstrates synchronous growth in both monetary and physical power. The UPCI metric exposes ‘carbon-intensive stagnation’ in South Africa and identifies a ‘pre-industrial trap’ in the DR Congo and Ethiopia. We conclude that sustainable development in African countries requires a strategic shift from maximising nominal GDP to accelerating per capita useful power growth through technological leapfrogging and increased structural complexity.

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