What question did this study set out to answer?

To evaluate whether quantum probability theory provides a superior mathematical framework compared to classical Bayesian logic for modeling human decision-making under uncertainty and conflict.

August 19, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Quantum Probability Theory Outperforms Classical Bayesian Logic in Modeling Human Decision-Making — E8 Intelligence Research

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ACAndrew Stewart Caldin

Key Points

To evaluate whether quantum probability theory provides a superior mathematical framework compared to classical Bayesian logic for modeling human decision-making under uncertainty and conflict.
Replaced classical Kolmogorov probability axioms with quantum probability amplitudes.
Modeled decision basis states as vectors in a linear Hilbert space incorporating complex phases.
Formulated mathematical interference terms to capture context-dependent violations of the law of total probability.
Quantum probability amplitudes and interference terms successfully accounted for context-dependent cognitive shifts that classical Bayesian models fail to explain.
The linear Hilbert space structure accurately represented decision states without requiring explicit geometric ratios or crystallographic symmetries.

Abstract

FINDING: Human decision-making under uncertainty and conflict is best modeled by quantum probability theory, not classical Bayesian logic. | MATH: Quantum probability amplitudes replace classical probabilities; decision basis states are vectors in Hilbert space; interference terms (e. g. , \ (| A | ² ᵢ | i | |² | A | i |² \) ) account for context-dependent violations of the law of total probability. | CONNECTION: No explicit geometric ratios (0. 382, 0. 618, 0. 786, 1. 618, 2. 618) or base-60 or crystallographic symmetries reported. The Hilbert space structure is linear, not inherently harmonic. | DEPTH: 6 — Foundational shift in probability theory for cognition, but no direct link to geometric harmony or universal constants. The mathematical essence is the replacement of Kolmogorov axioms with quantum probability, which introduces complex phases and interference. No specific equations or constants beyond the standard quant Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence. com

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Quantum Probability Theory Outperforms Classical Bayesian Logic in Modeling Human Decision-Making — E8 Intelligence Research

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Abstract

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