The Influence of Economic Growth on Trend of Sea Piracy and Armed Robbery Attacks against Ships in Nigeria

Given the positions of several empirical studies supporting the routine activity theory and frustration aggression theory that economic deprivation suffered by the coastal states in Nigeria in the face of growing output in the maritime transport subsector, is responsible for maritime insecurity in Nigeria; the study investigated the influence of the growth on the trend criminality and insecurity in the subsector. It employed time series secondary data covering a period of 20 years from 2000 to 2018 in which the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector, (MAREV) and youth unemployment rate (UNRATE) are used as proxies for economic growth and the frequency or number of pirate attacks against ships trading in Nigeria waters was used as proxy for sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships. Descriptive statistics and Log linear multiple regression analysis cum trend analysis methods were employed to analyze the data obtained. The results show that, the model showing the relationship depicting the influence of GDP growth, growth in revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector and unemployment rate on pirate attacks against ships involved in seaborne trade in the waters of Nigeria is: InPIRATE attacks = 2.760 - 1.160 In GDP - 0.05InMAREV + 0.258InUNRATE. This implies that, with a unit annual increase in GDP, pirate attacks against ships decreases by 3.81units. Similarly, with a unit annual increase in revenue generated by the maritime transport sub-sector, sea piracy and armed robbery attacks against ships in the waters of Nigeria decreases by 0.007 units while a unit increase in youth unemployment rate increases pirate attacks against ships in the Nigeria waters by 0.158units. The model showing the trend of pirate attacks against ships in Nigeria waters over the period relative to the trends of GDP, revenue generated by the maritime transport sector and youth unemployment is: PIRATE attacks = 23.386 - 0.105Xt +