Functioning of the grain market under global challenges: Theoretical and applied aspects

The study aimed to analyse structural changes and influencing factors affecting the dynamics of agricultural markets to develop well-grounded forecasts for their progression. Methods employed included economic and statistical analysis, regression modelling, factor and correlation analysis, as well as forecasting using machine learning models. The article presents a comprehensive assessment of the state of the grain market in Ukraine based on data for 2024. The research focuses on the analysis of production volumes, export structure, and domestic consumption of grain crops, including wheat, maize, barley, rye, oats, and others. In 2024, Ukraine’s total grain harvest amounted to 54.2 million tonnes, of which 35.4 million tonnes – over 65% of the total – were exported. The main export crops remained maize (21.7 million tonnes) and wheat (11.9 million tonnes). In the consumption structure, the largest shares were allocated to feed purposes (11.7 million tonnes), food needs (5.1 million tonnes), and technical use, including seed (2.0 million tonnes). The export geography was also analysed, with particular attention to the concentration of shipments to China, Spain, Egypt, Turkey and Indonesia, which together accounted for over 56% of total exports. Special attention was given to infrastructure constraints (including a 3.8% reduction in storage capacity), transport logistics (66% by seaport, 29% by rail), and price dynamics for key crops. Average prices were recorded at 232 USD/tonne for wheat, 187 USD/tonne for maize, and 198 USD/tonne for barley. It was concluded that the increase in production and consumption is accompanied by structural changes, a growing role of technology, rising costs, and the need for an adaptive policy framework. Ukraine has the potential to maintain a 9%-10% share of global maize exports, provided infrastructure development continues and logistics are stabilised. The findings of this study may be applied to the development of agricultural policy, the optimisation of export logistics, and the formation of economic strategies in the grain production sector