Urban Heat Risk in Kigali: Remote Sensing Evidence (2015–2024) for Informed Policy and Planning

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect exacerbates thermal stress in rapidly urbanizing cities, yet detailed temporal and spatial assessments remain limited in many African urban centers. This study examines UHI patterns in Kigali from 2015 to 2024 using satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. The findings present significant spatial heterogeneity in vegetation cover, with greener sectors such as Jali and Kanyinya contrasting sharply with densely urbanized areas like Kicukiro, which exhibit higher surface temperatures and limited vegetation. A consistent negative correlation between NDVI and LST underscores the cooling influence of urban vegetation on surface temperatures. Persistent UHI hotspots are concentrated in highly built-up zones, highlighting the urgent need for targeted green infrastructure interventions. Statistical analyses confirm significant temporal changes in both thermal and vegetative patterns, offering critical evidence to support climateresilient urban planning and sustainable development in Kigali and other rapidly growing African cities