It has become a platitude that the world is going through the deepest crisis of the nuclear arms control system built over the last sixty years. In February 2026, the term of the New START expires and it is impossible to extend it once again; there is no chance of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty entering full legal force; and without these pillars the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will be deeply undercut. Moreover, there is a growing pressure of some vested interests in favor of resuming explosive nuclear tests and transfering nuclear arms to foreign allies and partners. Meanwhile history has provided a number of examples of how the states’ political relations change while the military nuclear technologies stay and turn from “friendly” to “hostile” (China, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, and South Africa). Whatever the forthcoming world order becomes as a result of its ongoing transformation, nuclear weapons will stay as one of the main elements of international relations as well as the peaceful atomic energy intertwined with the dual purpose technologies. The future polycentric world will require a much better quality nuclear arms control system than previously, when security problems were the concern of the two superpowers. Donald Trump’s return to power is increasing the uncertainty of the future world order, creating both new opportunities and big risks. In view of the forthcoming renovations, the present comprehensive nuclear arms control crisis must be contained and overcome.
Alexei Arbatov (2025) studied this question.