Dynamic Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Cultivated Land Non-Agriculturalization in Sichuan Province

Given that the increasing non-agricultural conversion of cultivated land (NACCL) endangers food security, studying the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and driving mechanisms of NACCL in Sichuan Province can offer a scientific foundation for developing local farmland preservation measures and controlling further conversion. Guided by the theoretical framework of land use transition, this study utilizes land use datasets spanning multiple periods between 2000 and 2023. Comprehensively considering population scale factors, natural geographical factors, and socioeconomic factors, the county-level annual NACCL rate is calculated. Following this, the dynamic evolution and underlying driving forces of NACCL across 183 counties in Sichuan Province are examined through temporal and spatial dimensions, utilizing analytical tools including Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and the Geographical Detector model with Optimal Parameters (OPGD). The study finds that: (1) Overall, NACCL in Sichuan Province exhibits phased temporal fluctuations characterized by “expansion—contraction—re-expansion—strict control,” with cultivated land mainly being converted into urban land, and the differences among counties gradually narrowing. (2) In Sichuan Province, the spatial configuration of NACCL is characterized by the expansion of high-value agglomerations alongside the dispersed and stable distribution of low-value areas. (3) Analysis through the OPGD model indicates that urban construction land dominates the NACCL process in Sichuan Province, and the driving dimension evolves from single to synergistic. The findings of this study offer a systematic examination of the spatiotemporal evolution and underlying drivers of NACCL in Sichuan Province. This analysis provides a scientific basis for formulating region-specific farmland protection policies and supports the optimization of territorial spatial planning systems. The results hold significant practical relevance for promoting the sustainable use of cultivated land resources.