Are Process Safety Standards and Practices Ready for the Energy Transition?

Globally, nations and organisations are setting targets to achieve net zero carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions (NZE); for many, the target is to reach NZE by 2050. So, in just over 25 years, those nations and organisations need to rethink and deliver on how they generate, store, transmit, distribute and use energy. Delivering a paradigm-shifted energy system that will look different from the one that exists in the early 2020s is the challenge of our time. For comparison, the first industrial revolution that introduced steam and water-power took over a century. If we look forward to 2050, both crude oil and natural gas are expected to remain a significant energy vector, although their demand is forecast to decline (IEA (2023)). There will be other energy vectors and multiple pathways, from hydrogen to renewable crudes, as well as increased electrification across the value chain. However, if we reflect on the changes that have occurred in the energy industry over the last 25 years, such as the rise of shale gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), biofuels and electrification, these have been at a much smaller scale, more localised, and not necessarily impacting the same aspect of the energy system. The energy transition journey towards net zero is expected to be chaotic as the energy system is disrupted with multiple opportunities being adopted and impacts occurring in parallel. One can draw analogies with how peer-accepted science undergoes a paradigm shift when the status quo of knowledge becomes challenged, with a period of chaotic uncertainty until a new status quo is established. What is certain is that during the energy transition, the energy industry will undergo significant changes, which will require the industry to rapidly adapt to both technological advancements and the challenges posed by climate change. Initially, abatement is expected to use existing technologies combined with demand-side measures. Beyond 2030, abatement will require application of innovative technologies at scale, which introduces a need for management of change (MoC). Moreover, the pace of change will need to quicken, to deliver the required annual rate of transformation towards NZE and to achieve a 1.5 °C global temperature rise above pre-industrial levels.