Multiscenario simulation of fallow schemes in China and their impact on food security

Abstract A sound fallow program may potentially reduce food production and hence farmers' income in the short term but can help mitigate farmland pollution, improve food productivity, and enhance ecological protection in the long term. In China, degrading quality of arable land, soil pollution, and groundwater overexploitation require urgent implementation of suitable fallow schemes. We used existing spatial factors influencing the implementation of fallow schemes (including the delineated ecological protection red lines EPRL, soil pollution, groundwater overexploitation, and arable land quality), and determined farmers' willingness to fallow to understand priority areas of fallow in China under multi‐scenario simulation. Results show that of all farmers willing to fallow, only 2.17% of farmers actively participated in a fallow scheme. Compared to other factors determining fallow implementation, our multi‐scenario simulation found that: (1) scales of the high fallow scheme exhibit a descending order of PES (priority to ecological security scenario, 20.58%) > MCL (minimum production capacity loss scenario, 19.52%) > PFW (priority to farmers' willingness scenario, 18.98%) > PFS (priority to food safety scenario, 15.30%) and that (2) the loss of grain production capacity in implementation of the high fallow scheme is PES (17.32%) > PFW (14.36%) > PFS (13.66%) > MCL (9.67%). We recommend that the implementation of the fallow program at a national level should consider farmers' willingness to participate in a fallow scheme, the loss of food production capacity in the short term, as well as the mitigation of arable land pollution, the improvement of ecological protection, and the safeguard of global food security in a long term.