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Amidst the backdrop of continually declining total fertility rates and a population structure trending towards super-aging in China, can simple adjustments to birth policies effectively address the challenges of low fertility and aging? This study constructs a three-phase overlapping-generation model that incorporates fertility rates and delayed retirement. It investigates the economic impact of adjustments in birth policies and delayed retirement, and utilizes simulations and analyses based on real-world data from China. The research yields several key findings:1.Although theoretically, the impact of population aging on economic growth rates is uncertain, empirical data simulations indicate that the current level of population aging in China has already exerted a certain adverse impact on economic growth.2.Given the current population structure, delayed retirement can, to some extent, promote economic growth. However, due to potential vulnerabilities of older individuals who choose delayed retirement, such as reduced labor efficiency and learning abilities, the implementation of delayed retirement policies should be flexible and context-specific.3.Increasing fertility rates can mitigate the economic impact of the current demographic challenges. Thus, relaxing birth policies remains a crucial strategy that China must implement. A coordinated adjustment of delayed retirement and fertility rates is more likely to enhance economic growth.
Zhu et al. (Wed,) studied this question.