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Abstract Background The atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) is a critical metric for predicting cardiovascular outcomes. However, its associations with cardiovascular disease mortality (CVM) and all-cause mortality (ACM) remain unclear. This study aims to elucidate the relationship between baseline AIP levels and CVM and ACM among a broad cohort of US adults. Methods Utilizing data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005–2018), we analyzed 18,133 adults aged ≥ 18. Baseline triglycerides and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were measured to calculate the AIP. Mortality outcomes were determined through linkage with the National Death Index database, with follow-up through December 31, 2019. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models examined the associations between baseline AIP and mortality risks. Additionally, restricted cubic splines were utilized to investigate potential non-linear relationships, with subgroup analyses conducted across strata defined by age, gender, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, and metabolic syndrome to assess variability in these associations. Results Over a median 95.0-month follow-up, there were 1870 all-cause deaths and 579 cardiovascular disease-related deaths. Our findings indicate a J-shaped association between the AIP and ACM (threshold = 0.0905); specifically, when baseline AIP exceeded 0.0905, a significant positive association with ACM emerged (hazard ratio, HR (95% confidence interval, CI): 1.61(1.08–2.37)). However, after adjusting for confounders, the relationship between AIP and CVM was not statistically significant (HR 1.31, 95% CI 0.93–1.86). Notably, in the 40–60-year age group, AIP was significantly positively associated with ACM and CVM, with HRs and 95% CIs of 1.51 (1.08v2.10) and 2.63 (1.39–4.98), respectively. Conclusions A J-shaped relationship was observed between baseline AIP levels and ACM within the general US population, with a threshold of 0.0905. Moreover, AIP could potentially be an effective predictor for future ACM or CVM, particularly among individuals aged 40–60. Further investigation is warranted to corroborate these findings.
Qin et al. (Tue,) studied this question.