Prognostic scores for predicting clinical outcomes in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Abstract Background and aims This study aimed to determine the performance of AIMS65, Rockall score, and Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) in patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and to compare results between patients with nonvariceal UGIB (NVUGIB) and variceal UGIB (VUGIB). Methods We conducted a single-center prospective cohort study between December 2021 and December 2022. A total of 400 patients who met the inclusion criteria were included in the study, out of which 232 patients (58%) had NVUGIB and 168 patients (42%) had VUGIB. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed for all outcomes for comparison. Results Of the total of 400 patients with UGIB, 232 patients (58%) had NVUGIB, and 168 patients (42%) had VUGIB. The present study showed that GBS ( AUROC 0.729, 95% CI : 0.598–0.859, p = 0.001) and RS ( AUROC 0.693, 95% CI : 0.579–0.807, p = 0.005) but not AIMS65 ( AUROC , 0.545, 95% CI : 0.412–0.679, p = 0.500) predicted in-hospital and overall 6-week mortality in patients with UGIB. All the three scores predicted need for blood transfusion and poor composite outcomes ( p 0.05). Conclusions GBS and RS were superior to AIMS65 in predicted in-hospital and overall 6-week mortality in all the three categories: OUGIB, NVUGIB, and VUGIB patients.