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The current study was carried out to estimate the risk of disease probability from the consumption of foods such as meats, poultry, unpasteurized cheeses, fruit-based drinks, ready-to-eat fruits, and typical preparations such as Encebollado, ceviche, and Bolón de Verde contaminated with Salmonella, Escherichia coli and Listeria monocytogenes in Ecuador using a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA). A first-order Monte Carlo simulation probabilistic distribution approach was adopted to assess the occurrence of pathogens in the tested foods. The scenario was simulated using the concentration levels concerning the contaminant and food consumption obtained through an online survey with a sample size of 202 people. A model (100,000 iterations) was run and created in an Excel spreadsheet using @Risk software. The results obtained are the risk of infection (possibilities of becoming infected by eating the food evaluated) and the contaminant dose per portion consumed. Additionally, an exponential model with a single dose was used for risk characterization to determine the probability of becoming ill from contaminated food. The QMRA model performed a prediction for the mean risk of Salmonella infection from ground beef consumption of 1.33 E - 04 log 10 cfu / serving, while the exponential model estimated a value of 1.0 log cfu - serving. In the case of Listeria monocytogenes, the QMRA estimated an average probability of infection in unpasteurized fresh cheese of 5.9E-05 compared to the average disease risk estimated in the risk characterization for L. monocytogenes of 9.50E-13. The QMRA estimated an average risk of infection by E. coli for Encebollado and ceviches of 5.6E -03 compared to the average risk of disease estimated in the risk characterization for Escherichia coli of 0.387 log cfu -ration. These results suggest the need to adopt effective mitigation strategies. Control parameters such as temperature during the supply chain and good hygiene practices during manufacturing can effectively control food-associated pathogens. More data is necessary toimprove the evaluation of the risk developed. Keywords: Microbiological risk análisis, Infectious biological agents (Salmonella, Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli), QMRA (Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment), Typical foods in Ecuador, Population food consumption in three main cities of Ecuador.
Llorente et al. (Tue,) studied this question.