Accidental Thinking: A Model of Serendipity’s Cognitive Processes

Serendipity captures the interaction between a skilled human agent and a fortuitous event in the environment. Although it features in many stories of invention and discovery, its antecedents remain elusive. This paper combines research from different domains of psychology to present a model of the cognitive processes required for a serendipitous episode to occur. The model describes a prepared mind that consists of an informational state and an attentional state. Both states are considered as dynamic rather than fixed. An accident is then the trigger event that updates both of these and feeds information back into the prepared mind. If the accident is noticed, a cycle of judgement and amplification occurs, eventually leading to an output. The model generates novel predictions that point to an increased understanding of how best to scaffold serendipitous moments.