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Significance The government is highly dependent on steady GDP growth to meet its pledges on deficit-reduction and tax cuts. It was forced to implement EUR10bn (USD10.7bn) in emergency cuts in February after it lowered the 2024 GDP growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.0%. Sovereign ratings agencies have voiced concerns over France’s ability to meet fiscal targets. Impacts If the government loses heavily in June’s EU elections, as the polls predicts, it will probably face a censure motion shortly after. Stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter increases the chances that S&P will maintain its rating for France. France’s fiscal constraints will make it harder for the government to reverse polling trends and weaken far right support.
A Thu, study studied this question.