Russia will exploit tension but will not encourage war

Significance Russia maintains a delicate balance in the Middle East, preserving a close relationship with Shia-majority Iran and a security presence in neighbouring Syria while seeking stronger diplomatic and economic ties with rival Sunni-majority Gulf states. Although Moscow has moved closer to Tehran since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it is wary of upsetting relations with its other partners in the region. Impacts Russia will continue to call for a calming of tensions and focus on diplomatic resolutions to Israel’s conflict with Palestine and Iran. Russian military and diplomatic support for Iran will endure, but not to the detriment of Moscow’s other regional relationships. Moscow will exploit anger at Western states’ involvement in the Middle East and seek to increase its status as a reliable interlocutor.