A Novel Hybrid Transformer-Based Framework for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Under Incomplete Data Scenarios

Accurate prediction of solar irradiance is crucial for the effective utilization of solar energy. However, in real-world scenarios, complex irradiance patterns and prevalent incomplete data pose challenges to precise forecasting, resulting in additional uncertainties and instability. To address these issues, this study proposes a novel irradiance forecasting model that integrates a Mask-Transformer data imputation module and a prediction module centered around the typical patterns representation mechanism. The Mask-Transformer leverages a mask modeling mechanism to model the context of missing data, facilitating accurate estimation of missing values and reducing noise and uncertainty in the input data. The typical patterns representation mechanism comprises a series decomposition module and a feature fusion module, providing the module with the capability to mitigate nonlinearity and nonstationarity in solar irradiance data. This enhancement leads to improved short-term forecasting performance while maintaining long-term forecasting capabilities. Experimental results on two datasets demonstrate that the proposed model exhibits sufficient robustness and accuracy, making it effective in scenarios with incomplete data.