Real-time high-resolution modelling of grid carbon emissions intensity

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy industry is broadly acknowledged as important with numerous countries implementing targets to reduce emissions. Understanding the carbon emissions intensity of electricity grids is an important step in this process, and higher spatial and temporal granularity estimates are critical for delivering actionable insights. Existing emissions intensity models are limited in terms of their real-time availability and, in particular, their spatial granularity. Here we outline a method for estimating emissions intensity of large-scale interconnected electricity networks in real-time at substation-level resolution. This is realized by integrating national-wide high-resolution electricity generation and demand data, regional population data, a detailed model of the electricity grid, and power flow optimization and flow tracing models. Results for Australia's National Electricity Market reveal that most capital city locations have higher emissions intensity than neighbouring regional areas, though the variation within a city can also be substantial. In general, emissions intensity is higher in areas closer to, or directly fed by emissions intensive coal and gas generators. These results have important implications for the design of energy efficiency incentives and demand response strategies, in the rollout of distributed renewable generation, and in carbon accounting.