Real-Time UAV Trajectory Prediction for UTM Surveillance Using Machine Learning

The Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) surveillance plays an important role in monitoring the safety compliance of UAV flights within specific operational zones. However, the quality of data reception from UAVs depends on transmission signal quality, leading to variable data latency during flights. As a means of addressing this issue and improving UAV operational safety, trajectory prediction emerges as a promising solution. This study aims to implement real-time trajectory prediction through the integration of machine learning techniques within the UTM surveillance system using Broadcast Remote ID. To facilitate this, a homemade receiver for broadcast Remote ID is developed using the ESP32 microcontroller. Subsequently, two distinctive flight tests are executed using a DJI Phantom 4 UAV. In the first flight, UAV trajectory data are used to serve as training input for the machine learning algorithms. The second flight focuses on the implementation of real-time trajectory prediction. The trajectory prediction model uses inputs such as latitude, longitude, height, speed, direction, latency time, and the Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI). Through an analysis of the first flight’s offline data, the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) algorithm is preferred to the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm. The outcomes of the second flight test prove the feasibility of the GRU-based trajectory prediction. The GRU model successfully produces real-time predictions during UAV flight, showcasing accuracy levels similar to those derived from offline prediction analyses with short processing time. This real-time trajectory prediction could improve the safety of UAV operation by providing the estimated position when the latency time is higher than the threshold.