The Impact of Global Epidemics on Improving Government Response Measures and Developing Forecasting and Analytical Tools for Monitoring the Situation: History and Modern Times

Epidemics, as large-scale crises, have had a significant impact on the development of human civilization throughout history. Some of the deadliest pandemics were the plague of 1347—1353, which claimed about 50 million lives in Europe, and the cholera pandemic, which reduced the worlds population by 60 million people at once. In the 20th and 21st centuries, the Spanish flu pandemic, as well as viruses such as HIV / AIDS, coronaviruses (SARS, MERS), and COVID-19, again shocked the world with their stunning consequences, significantly increasing the number of victims. For all states, such difficult-to-control processes are always a challenge that determines the further consequences for the population. History has many examples of attempts at preventive measures to help block the spread of an epidemic, but they are often individual in nature, due to the specifics of the virus. With the development of science and technology, the evolution of methods for responding to and predicting epidemics has acquired particular importance. If earlier epidemic control was limited to traditional measures, such as quarantine and isolation of the sick, then in recent decades new approaches, methods and tools have emerged: the use of medical masks, sanitizers, social distancing and large-scale vaccination, as well as the creation of digital platforms, monitoring and situation centers that continuously monitor the development of the situation. Agent-oriented models have proven themselves as a modern predictive tool, which are an effective means for analyzing and preventing the development of epidemiological processes. Such a mechanism allows modeling the behavior of decentralized agents within the framework of social and economic processes, which is important for a more accurate forecast and assessment of the consequences of epidemics. The article presents a historical overview of large-scale epidemics and their consequences. Government response and prevention measures during pandemics are provided. Agent-oriented models specializing in epidemiological specifics and proving their practical significance are analyzed. The article discusses the development of socio-epidemiological-economic consequences (SEEP) by young scientists from the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences with elements of a digital twin for forecasting and analyzing pandemics, in particular, COVID-19, using the example of Russian regions. The model includes three interconnected blocks: demographic, economic and epidemiological, with the possibility of scenario modeling.