Abstract BACKGROUND Verticillium dahliae (Kleb.), a soil‐borne fungus that can persist in soil for more than a decade, poses a persistent threat to global cotton production. However, its potential impact on cotton yield under changing climatic conditions remains poorly understood. This study aimed to quantify the influence of climate on cotton vulnerability to verticillium wilt disease in Xinjiang, China, and to project future risks under different climate scenarios. RESULTS Data from 2011–2021 revealed an additional 8.7% cotton yield loss per decade due to verticillium wilt in the absence of control measures. A climate‐driven model identified the optimum temperature range for maximum disease severity as 25–28.5 °C, while relative humidity exceeding 82% markedly increased vulnerability. The model further indicated that cotton yield declines by 18.8% for every 0.1 increase in the disease vulnerability index. Projections show that climate change will amplify disease risk, leading to additional yield losses of up to 8.5% under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario and 18.4% under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario by the late 21st century. CONCLUSION Climate change is expected to intensify verticillium wilt‐induced yield losses in major cotton‐growing regions. These results underscore the urgency of integrating disease‐control strategies with climate adaptation planning. By coupling field‐based disease management with climate projections, this study advances understanding of crop–pathogen–climate interactions and provides a framework for developing resilient cotton production systems under future climate conditions. © 2025 Society of Chemical Industry.
Zongming Xie (Fri,) studied this question.