The USA ’s 2025 Tariff Reform: Implications for EU Agri‐food Exports and the Common Agricultural Policy

Summary The paper examines the implications of the 2025 US tariff reform under President Trump for EU agri‐food exports and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Drawing on WTO trade rules and their exceptions, we show how unilateral tariff actions legally emerge within the multilateral system, leaving EU farmers exposed to external shocks. Using baseline export data and tariff‐loss simulations, we estimate that a 15 per cent tariff reduces EU exports to the US by €2–4.5 billion annually, with the heaviest impact on high‐value Mediterranean products such as wine, olive oil and spirits. These results confirm that current CAP instruments – particularly the Unity Safety Net (€0.9 billion/year) – are insufficient, covering less than one‐third of the central‐case export losses. While the proposed post‐2027 CAP strengthens resilience through expanded risk management and sustainability measures, it lacks a dedicated mechanism for external trade shocks. The findings support three research hypotheses: Trump’s tariffs cause significant short‐term export losses; the current CAP cannot mitigate them, and future reforms, though more ambitious, remain structurally under‐prepared. Policy implications include the need for a trade‐shock resilience pillar within the CAP, stronger alignment with EU trade policy, and diversification of export markets. Overall, the study highlights the systemic vulnerability of EU agriculture to unilateral tariff measures.