A method for obtaining a surface pressure forecast is tested in which height changes at 1000 mb are assumed to depend on 500 mb height changes from a barotropic forecast and advective thickness changes for the 500-1000 mb layer. The method was found to have limited usefulness for the Australian region since the major errors were associated with the barotropic forecast at 500 mb. However, improvements in the surface pressure forecast were obtained when the stability of the atmosphere was incorporated in the forecast scheme. The RMS error in the surface pressure forecast was of the order of 4 mb while the average Teweles skill score was was 55.
Mary Voice (Tue,) studied this question.