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This analysis investigates the potential for artificial superintelligence to create a global power imbalance, leading to domination across various sectors.

February 25, 2026Open Access

The AI Superpower Hypothesis: How Control of Articial Superintelligence Could Enable Unprecedented Global Domination Mechanisms, Pathways, and Governance Responses

Key Points

This analysis investigates the potential for artificial superintelligence to create a global power imbalance, leading to domination across various sectors.
Interdisciplinary review of literature on AI superintelligence and strategic advantages
Analysis of DSA mechanisms such as military supremacy and economic control
Exploration of governance frameworks for AI management
Identified four main mechanisms enabling global dominance: military-technological supremacy, economic automation, political persuasion, and recursive self-improvement
Proposed a governance framework including international treaties and equitable AI benefit-sharing
Highlighted the existential risks associated with rapid AI advancement and the need for preventive action

Abstract

The emergence of artificial superintelligence (ASI)—a system exceeding human performance across all strategically relevant cognitive domains—may grant its controlling entity a Decisive Strategic Advantage (DSA): the ability to dominate all rivals combined, consolidate global power, and establish a permanent “singleton” order. This paper provides a rigorous interdisciplinary analysis of the AI Superpower Hypothesis: the proposition that the first actor to achieve and deploy ASI—whether a nation-state, a corporation, or a hybrid entity—could translate that cognitive advantage into irreversible geopolitical, military, economic, and democratic domination on a global scale. We draw on: Formal Strategic Theory (Bostrom, 2014; Hendrycks et al., 2025) Geopolitical Analysis (RAND, 2025; WEF, 2025) Expert Warnings on Power Concentration (Yoshua Bengio, 2024a; Bartlett has significant limitations. Self-Reinforcing Power Concentration – pathways by which ASI control could become irreversible. Conclusion and Recommendations While ASI superpower risk is not the most likely near-term outcome, its tail probability and catastrophic consequences justify immediate, coordinated preventive action. We propose a governance framework combining: International Treaties – binding rules for AI development and deployment. Compute Monitoring – oversight of high-performance computational resources. Benefit-Sharing Mechanisms – equitable distribution of AI gains to reduce inequality. Distributed AI Development Architecture – decentralization to prevent monopolization of ASI capabilities. This framework aims to mitigate existential risks while maintaining global cooperation and strategic stability.

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