What does this research mean for the field?

China's expansion of petrochemical capacity is causing significant reductions in ethylene production capacity in Japan and other Asian countries. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.CONFIRMATORY. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To examine the effects of China's petrochemical capacity expansion on other Asian countries, particularly Japan.

February 26, 2026

China’s petrochemical deluge swamps other Asian countries

Key Points

To examine the effects of China's petrochemical capacity expansion on other Asian countries, particularly Japan.
Assessment of ethylene production capacity in Asian countries
Analysis of recent announcements by major petrochemical firms
Review of planned closures of ethylene crackers
Japan will reduce its ethylene capacity by nearly 30% with four crackers closing.
Approximately 1.75 million metric tons of capacity will be eliminated across Japan by 2030.
Operating rates for ethylene crackers in Japan have fallen below 80% for four consecutive years.

Abstract

China’s massive petrochemical capacity expansion is hitting other Asian countries hard. In Japan, four ethylene crackers are set to close in the coming years, reducing the number of operating units in the country from 12 to 8 and slashing the country’s ethylene capacity by nearly 30%. Shutdowns are also spreading across South Korea, the Philippines, and other parts of Southeast Asia, reshaping the petrochemical landscape of the entire region.On Jan. 27, three big Japanese firms—Asahi Kasei, Mitsubishi Chemical, and Mitsui Chemicals—announced that they will establish a joint venture to integrate their two ethylene units in western Japan. The companies plan to close the ethylene plant operated by Asahi Kasei and Mitsubishi in Mizushima by 2030 and consolidate production at Mitsui’s site in Osaka. Consolidation is already underway elsewhere in Japan: Maruzen Petrochemical will shut its ethylene plant this year and shift production to Keiyo Ethylene, its joint venture with Sumitomo Chemical. In the Chiba area, Idemitsu Kosan will shut its cracker in July 2027 and consolidate output at Mitsui’s Ichihara site. Eneos plans to consolidate its two ethylene units in Kawasaki into a single line by the end of 2027. In all, the closures will eliminate about 1.75 million metric tons (t) per year of capacity.Japanese petrochemical producers have been struggling with shrinking domestic demand and growing supply from China, factors that have pushed ethylene cracker operating rates below 80% for 4 consecutive years. “Operating rates have fallen far below the 90% level needed to secure profitability, dealing a direct

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Cite This Study

special to C&EN Katsumori Matsuoka (Mon,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699fe2eb95ddcd3a253e6598 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1021/cen-10403-buscon4

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