This deliverable presents the initial Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) for the Municipality of Aigaleo (AGL), developed within the framework of the CLIMAAX – Clisthenes project. It focuses on identifying key climate hazards, vulnerabilities, and capacities to support the future development of inclusive, locally adapted climate adaptation strategies. The core objective of Phase 2 was to address the limitations of coarse-scale data identified in the first phase by thoroughly integrating detailed local information and involving stakeholders in a structured co-creation process. This involved the systematic integration of municipal GIS data, detailed social vulnerability indices, information from the local environmental monitoring network, and census data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority. This shift from regional to neighbourhood-scale analysis is fundamental for translating climate projections into actionable urban planning.The assessment confirms and details two priority climate hazards for Aigaleo: intensifying urban heatwaves and growing wildfire risk in the Wildland-Urban Interface, particularly around the Aigaleo Grove. Through a cycle of eight Monthly Focus Groups and two Participatory Workshops, the project team and local stakeholders co-defined six locally specific risk indicators: Summer Energy Poverty, Buildings' Exposure to Heatwaves, Heatwave Risk to Vulnerable Populations, Health Exposure to Heatwaves, Workers' Exposure to Heatwaves, and Wildfire (FWI) Risk. These indicators capture critical social vulnerabilities that the CLIMAAX workflow do not include but are essential for Aigaleo's resilience.Some notable findings include:Heatwaves: A clear increase in heat stress is projected. Cooling Degree Days (CDD) and the frequency of heatwave days are set to rise substantially, especially under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). By the end of the century, the municipality faces a transition from manageable heat risk to severe, potentially unmanageable conditions, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations in areas with dense, old building stock.Wildfires: Fire Weather Index (FWI) analysis indicates a significant increase in wildfire risk over time. The occurrence of "very extreme" fire weather days is expected to rise considerably, heightening the danger for interface areas. This emphasises the importance of improved vegetation management and community readiness.Social Vulnerability: The assessment spatially identifies hotspots of exposure, linking climate hazards directly to socio-economic fragility. Neighbourhoods with high numbers of elderly residents, low-income households, and energy-inefficient buildings are at the greatest risk, emphasising the need for a just and equitable adaptation response.Persistent challenges include the technical complexity of risk modelling for municipal staff and gaps in hyper-local data. Phase 3 will build directly on these findings, focusing on translating the assessed risks into tangible adaptation strategies. Planned activities include developing a Scalable Policy Canvas, conducting participatory workshops to co-design interventions, and raising awareness to embed climate resilience into the wider West Athens urban strategy.This detailed CRA emphasises the climate challenges facing Aigaleo and provides a structured foundation for inclusive, evidence-based planning of climate adaptation solutions with strong social impact. The next phase of the project will be further enriched through community engagement and cross-sectoral cooperation in subsequent stages of the Clisthenes project. Building directly on this 10Deliverable Phase 2assessment, Phase 3 will focus on translating the identified risks into concrete adaptation strategies by developing a Scalable Policy Canvas, organising participatory design workshops, and executing strategic outreach to scale resilience actions across the West Athens area.In conclusion, the work carried out in Phase 2 provides Aigaleo with a strong, evidence-based foundation for proactive and inclusive climate adaptation planning. It shifts the municipality from a reactive approach to a proactive stance, enabling focused allocation of resources and the design of measures that are both technically robust and socially just, paving the way for effective adaptation strategies in the final phase of the project
Bakogianni et al. (Tue,) studied this question.