The security and stability of grain production form the foundation for the high-quality development of a nation’s economy and society, holding strategic significance for social stability and sustainable economic growth. This study employs the core variable method to measure and analyze the spatiotemporal pattern and evolutionary characteristics of China’s county-level grain production resilience from 2001 to 2023. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is further constructed to explore the influencing factors of grain production resilience and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The results indicate that: (1) China’s grain production resilience shows a fluctuating upward trend, with significant regional disparities—exhibiting a spatial gradient characterized by a high-value core in the northeast, followed by the eastern and central regions, and lagging performance in the west. (2) The overall disparity in grain production resilience is substantial, with interregional differences serving as the primary source of variation. Internal disparities are largest in the eastern region, followed by the northeast and west, while the central region displays relatively minor internal differences. (3) Grain production resilience exhibits significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The positive effects of grain yield per unit area, multiple cropping index, agricultural mechanization level, agricultural informatization, and agricultural investment have continued to strengthen, whereas the negative impact of the proportion of employment in the primary industry has become increasingly evident, suggesting that traditional labor-intensive agricultural models increasingly constrain grain production resilience.
DING et al. (Fri,) studied this question.