The overriding influence of prior academic performance: why GPA matters more than psychological factors in predicting student achievement

Purpose This study examines the relative influence of psychological factors (digital literacy, motivation, self-efficacy, learning strategies) and prior academic performance (GPA) on final academic achievement. Using regression analysis on data from 84 Indonesian university students, we found that GPA was the only significant predictor (ß = 45.398, p 0.001), explaining 51.16% of variance in final scores. Surprisingly, psychological constructs showed no significant effects. The findings challenge conventional emphasis on non-cognitive factors and highlight the enduring importance of prior academic performance in predicting student success. Design/methodology/approach This study utilized a quantitative cross-sectional design with a purposive sample of 84 Indonesian undergraduate Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) students. Data were collected via a self-report survey assessing digital literacy, motivation, self-efficacy, and learning strategies, demonstrating good reliability (Cronbach's a = 0.79–0.88), alongside archival records of cumulative GPA and final scores. Multiple linear regression in RStudio identified GPA as the sole significant predictor of academic achievement (ß = 0.781, p 0.001). The study adhered to ethical standards using anonymized data; institutional guidelines waived formal approval for this minimal-risk research. Participation was voluntary, with informed consent obtained, ensuring confidentiality through aggregated analysis. Findings The regression analysis revealed that prior academic performance, measured by cumulative GPA, was the only statistically significant predictor of final academic achievement (ß = 0.781, p 0.001), accounting for 51.16% of the variance in scores. Contrary to prevailing educational perspectives, psychological factors—including digital literacy, motivation, self-efficacy, and learning strategies—showed no significant predictive effects. Gender also did not significantly influence academic outcomes. These results underscore the dominant role of foundational knowledge and academic preparedness, as captured by GPA, in driving student success within this specific Indonesian STEM education context, challenging the emphasis on non-cognitive factors in digital learning environments. Research limitations/implications The generalizability of these findings is limited by the relatively small sample size (N = 84) and its specific focus on Indonesian STEM students, which may restrict applicability to other cultural or disciplinary contexts. The cross-sectional design also precludes causal inferences. Despite these limitations, the study implies that educational interventions should prioritize strengthening foundational academic skills, as reflected by GPA, rather than focusing primarily on psychological factors. For educators and policymakers, this suggests a need to develop early, robust academic support systems. Future research should employ longitudinal designs and larger, more diverse samples to validate these findings and explore the indirect influences of psychological variables on achievement. Practical implications Educators and institutions should utilize students’ prior academic performance (GPA) as a key diagnostic indicator to identify at-risk individuals early. Intervention programs should prioritize reinforcing foundational knowledge and cognitive strategies, particularly in challenging subjects like calculus, rather than focusing solely on boosting motivation or digital literacy. While psychological support remains valuable, it should serve as a complementary tool to facilitate academic skill development. These findings advocate for curriculum designs and teaching methodologies that systematically build and assess core competencies from early educational stages, ensuring students establish a strong academic foundation essential for success in advanced STEM courses. Social implications This study challenges the growing societal tendency to attribute academic success primarily to non-cognitive traits like motivation or resilience, which can inadvertently lead to blaming students for perceived lack of effort rather than addressing systemic educational gaps. By reaffirming the critical role of foundational knowledge—often shaped by early access to quality education—it highlights socioeconomic disparities in academic preparation. The findings advocate for equitable policies that ensure all students, regardless of background, receive robust early instruction to build a strong GPA, which serves as a powerful engine for upward mobility. This shifts responsibility from individual psychology to structural educational support. Originality/value This study provides original empirical evidence from a non-Western context, challenging the dominant Western-centric discourse that prioritizes non-cognitive factors in digital learning environments. Its novelty lies in directly juxtaposing psychological constructs against prior academic performance, revealing GPA'soverwhelming predictive power in Indonesian STEM education. The research offers critical value by advocating for a balanced, context-sensitive approach to student success, emphasizing the irreplaceable role of foundational knowledge while acknowledging the indirect potential of psychological factors. This contributes to a more nuanced, globally relevant understanding of educational achievement beyond conventional paradigms.