Northward Expansion of Mangroves: Drivers, Ecological Impacts, and Proposed Research

Poster presented at the 2026 Indian River Lagoon (IRL) Symposium. Coastal wetland habitats, including salt marshes and mangroves, provide critical ecological and economic benefits to our shoreline. However, in recent decades, coastlines worldwide have seen mangrove forests expanding and salt marsh habitats declining. Changes in climatic conditions, such as reduced freeze events and increased frequency and intensity of tropical storms, have been identified as key drivers of northward mangrove migration. This study aims to identify the environmental cues associated with poleward mangrove migration and transitions in coastal wetland habitats along the Atlantic coast of Florida by integrating high-resolution remote sensing imagery with long-term meteorological data. Specific objectives of this study are to (i) map and quantify changes in coastal wetland composition over the past decade using remote sensing analyses validated through ground-truthing, (ii) develop long-term meteorological baselines at each study site to characterize temperature extremes, freeze event duration, and variability associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and (iii) evaluate whether observed wetland classification changes correlate with extreme temperature conditions, storm disturbances, and other weather-related events. Land classification, NDVI, and hotspot analyses will be used to assess the rates and spatial extent of mangrove migration and wetland conversion, while meteorological datasets will be analyzed to quantify freeze characteristics, storm impacts, and ENSO-related anomalies and their influence on land cover change. Results from this study will provide new insights into wetland habitat transition rates, improve ecological forecasting, and advance scientific understanding of climate–ecosystem relationships. These findings will enhance the capacity to anticipate ecosystem responses under future climate scenarios and support coastal managers in prioritizing restoration efforts, informing conservation planning, and implementing adaptive monitoring strategies.