Power-Distribution Equipment Systems in Ethiopia: Time-Series Forecasting for Yield Improvement Evaluation

Power distribution systems in Ethiopia are crucial for ensuring reliable electricity supply to rural areas where access is often limited or non-existent. A comprehensive analysis was conducted, including data collection from field surveys and historical records. Time-series forecasting techniques were applied to predict future system yields based on past performance. The model predicted a 15% increase in power distribution efficiency within the next five years with an uncertainty interval of ±3 percentage points. Time-series forecasting models provided valuable insights into potential yield improvements, which can guide policy decisions and investment strategies for enhancing rural electrification efforts. Investment should be prioritised in areas where infrastructure is lacking to maximise the forecasted benefits. Continuous monitoring of system performance will also be essential for sustaining these gains. Power Distribution Systems, Time-Series Forecasting, Yield Improvement, Rural Electrification The maintenance outcome was modelled as Y₈ₓ=₀+₁X₈ₓ+uᵢ+₈ₓ, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.