Abstract Interannual variability in the runoff ratio—how much annual precipitation becomes streamflow—underpins water management, flood forecasting, and biogeochemical fluxes. In most hydrologic frameworks, this variability is attributed primarily to year-to-year climate drivers. Here, we show that in North America’s wetland-rich Prairie Pothole Region, wetlands play the dominant proximate role. Using 38 years of satellite-based inundation maps and hydroclimate data from 109 catchments, we find that annual wetland inundation extent explains interannual runoff and high-flow variability more strongly than any annual or intra-annual climate index in 69% of catchments. Climate, especially snow persistence, affects wetland inundation extent, but wetland inundation exerts a stronger net control on runoff and ultimately sets the pace of annual runoff through fill–spill hydrology. Catchments exhibit wetland inundation–runoff relationships ranging from linear to strongly threshold-like, with threshold-like behavior predominant—particularly where Geographically Isolated Wetlands are abundant. These findings reveal wetlands as active regulators of ecosystem water balance and provide a landscape-explicit basis for forecasting, conservation, and adaptive water management across the region.
Rahmani et al. (Wed,) studied this question.