Global warming and electric heat pump adoption will, together, likely have a complex effect on energy burdens in the United States. Here, for 10,000 representative buildings in 28 U.S. cities, we estimate the distribution of monthly and annual energy burdens for every combination of current and future (electrified) heating and cooling systems, and the historical and future climates. In cold climates, the combined effect of electrification and warming could help reduce energy burdens, while heat pump adoption alone would raise them. In very cold cities, the energy bills in January could exceed income, a phenomenon that warming will only partially blunt. In Detroit in January, heat pump adoption would produce a 2 percentage point increase in energy burden compared to natural gas heating, but would reduce energy burdens by 8 percentage points for homes that use resistance electric heating. Decision-makers should carefully target information and incentives for heat pump adoption. Switching to heat pumps sharply cuts costs for homes using resistive, propane or oil heat and improves cooling efficiency in warm regions, but raises winter burdens in colder zones, according to a study modeling monthly energy cost for 10,000 United States homes.
Yi et al. (Wed,) studied this question.