Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a progressive respiratory condition affecting over 300 million people globally and remains significantly underdiagnosed due to reliance on traditional spirometry-based screening. This paper presents a comparative study of three state-of-the-art gradient boosting algorithms-XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost-for automated COPD severity classification on real clinical tabular data, benchmarked against a 1D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) baseline. Additionally, a Stacking Ensemble combining all three gradient boosting models via a Logistic Regression meta-learner is proposed as a novel hybrid approach. Experiments are conducted on the Kaggle COPD Student Dataset comprising 101 patients and 19 clinical features. The experimental evaluation demonstrates that gradient boosting algorithms significantly outperform the 1D CNN baselines for COPD severity classification using small clinical tabular data. Among all models, XGBoost achieved the best overall performance with 90.48% accuracy, 89.76% weighted F1-score, and 96.83% AUC-ROC, indicating superior predictive capability and balanced classification across severity levels. CatBoost achieved the highest discriminative ability with a near-perfect 99.31% AUC-ROC, while LightGBM delivered stable and competitive results with 85.71% accuracy and 95.08% AUC-ROC. In contrast, the CNN baseline performed poorly, achieving only 42.86% accuracy and 25.71% F1-score, confirming that deep learning architectures are less effective for small structured datasets. The Stacking Ensemble achieves competitive performance (85.71% accuracy, 97.9% AUC-ROC), confirming ensemble combination as a viable research direction. Five-fold cross-validation further confirmed model robustness, with gradient boosting models achieving mean F1-scores above 83%, substantially higher than the CNN baseline. SHAP explainability analysis consistently identified FEV1PRED, FEV1, and FVCPRED as the most influential clinical predictors, aligning with established COPD severity guidelines and supporting the clinical validity of the models.
S.Parthasarathi et al. (Thu,) studied this question.