Last Three Decades", Prof Tanaka first addressed the question of why Prime Ministers in Japan have been so fragile in recent years.According to him, there are three possible reasons for the fragility: party leaders' lack of understanding about the Japanese electorate, electoral system, and lack of cohesiveness of each major party to enhance motivation of party members to change their party leader to win the midterm election.With respect to the first reason -the lack of understanding on the electorate, Prof Tanaka presented the results of the last 3 lower house elections to argue that even though big national swings of voters seemed to take place in 2005, 2009, and 2012 elections on surface, the number of votes gained by the 2 parties suggested that the structure of the electorate has not changed so much.The LDP support base, therefore, has been shrinking but stable.Prof Tanaka also provided explanations for the LDP survival and comeback in 2012.First, the LDP has been heavily dependent on the organized voters with the additional assistance from the Kohmei, a party based on very solid organization.Also, the low voting turnout helped those parties based on solid organization.When voting turnout goes up, and when a chunk of independent voters goes to a particular party, such as the DPJ, then the LDP loses the election.The 2009 Lower House election was the case in point.But he suggested that the LDP has a dilemma in maintaining a majority of seats in the Lower House, mainly stemming from the fact that even with the help of the Kohmei, the LDP cannot win an election (i.e., a majority of seats in the Lower House), when the voting turnout goes up and when most of the independents voters goes to a particular party, such as the DPJ.
Aiji Tanaka (Fri,) studied this question.